Wind turbine Coal-fired power station Hydro-electric power station Gas-fired combined-cycle power station LNG tanker Nuclear power station
International Energy Consultants
International Energy Consultants
International Energy Consultants

 

International Energy Consultants Home page
International Energy Consultants Corporate Profile
International Energy Consultants Consulting Services
International Energy Consultants Modelling Services
International Energy Consultants Power Market Studies
International Energy Consultants Major Projects & Clients
International Energy Consultants Online Tariff Calculator
International Energy Consultants Training Courses
Contact International Energy Consultants

 

 

Modelling Services

IEC has an in-house suite of proprietary software and modelling tools that have been developed by personnel with hands-on experience in the power industry, specifically to meet the particular requirements of IPP companies.

Our modelling capabilities include:

Load & dispatch simulation

 

Pool market simulation

 

Pool price projections

 

New Entrant analysis

 

Fuel demand forecasting

 

Tariff calculation

 

Financial modelling

LOAD & DISPATCH SIMULATION - POOL MARKET SIMULATION

IEC’s flagship product is our power market & Pool simulation model which is designed to replicate the detailed operation of power generation systems in both regulated and deregulated Pool markets.

The simulation model dispatches all existing and future plants into the load on an hourly basis (8760 times per year). Hydro plants are dispatched optimally according to their weekly energy budgets and constraints. Thermal plants are then dispatched into the net thermal load, according to their position in the merit order (after adjustment for maintenance, transmission loss factors, must-run & minimum generation constraints). Where necessary, adjustments are made for Pool market behaviour and/or take-or-pay constraints.

The model is designed to make long-term (20+ years) projections of systems, companies and individual projects and can test multiple scenarios of load growth, expansion plan, hydrology, fuel price, Pool market behaviour, fuel price, Pool market behaviour, etc.

Typical outputs include:

Reserve margin

 

Plant capacity factors (daily, monthly or annual)

 

Fuel demand (including daily & seasonal variations)

 

New generation capacity requirements (timing, size & type)

 

Pool price projections (not forecasts)

 

CO2 emissions & carbon credits

 

Plant/company EBITDA (operating revenues & costs)

 

Scenario analysis


Key outputs are all generated in graphical and table form. The following charts are representative outputs:

Philippines

Indonesia

Japan

International Energy Consultants - Graph International Energy Consultants - Graph International Energy Consultants - Graph

Singapore

New Zealand

New Zealand

Click graphs to view larger size and more information.

 

IEC maintains comprehensive databases and has already built working simulation models for most Asia/Pacific grids including:

Japan

 

South Korea

 

Philippines

 

Indonesia

 

Singapore

 

Vietnam

 

Australia

 

Taiwan

 

New Zealand

 

China

Back to top
NEW ENTRANT ANALYSIS

IEC has developed an analytical screening tool designed to analyse New Entrant options. The model determines the optimum long-term economic option for a new power plant at a specified capacity factor. Users can input technical specifications, fuel costs and capex estimates for various plant types and compare the levelised tariff at a specified capacity factor. This tool is particularly useful for investors participating in IPP solicitations where plant/fuel type is optional. In deregulated Pool markets, the New Entrant curves can be compared with the projected annual price distribution curve, to determine the optimum capacity factor. The model also allows fuel suppliers to calculate the maximum netback fuel price available in a deregulated Pool market.

Back to top
TARIFF CALCULATION

IEC has developed a proprietary Online Tariff Calculator (OTC) that is available free of charge on this website. The OTC is designed as a screening tool to provide estimates of levelised tariffs. It is intended to be used to make approximate estimates and to test the relative sensitivity of key variables. Users seeking more detailed calculations are advised to contact us for a full financial model.

Back to top
FINANCIAL MODELLING

IEC can provide assistance in the preparation or review of detailed financial cash flow models for greenfield developments and acquisitions. Models are customised to the project financing requirements and provide multi-year cash flow and earnings statements. These models can then be linked to IEC’s market projections to determine the sensitivity of IRR to various scenarios.

Back to top

International Energy Consultants

E-mail International Energy Consultants jmorris@energyconsultants.com.au
+61-8-9245 5453


 

© 2004 International Energy Consultants. All rights reserved