Power Market Studies

IEC specialises in producing detailed and comprehensive Power Market Studies, especially for countries located in the Asia/Pacific region.

 Clients requiring these studies typically include IPP developers, companies conducting due diligence on acquisition of power generation assets, electricity retailers and fuel suppliers. 

We are frequently asked to prepare market reports for lenders who require expert analysis.

Markets

IEC has previously prepared detailed and comprehensive market reports for the following countries:

  • Philippines
  • Singapore
  • PNG
  • South Korea
  • Japan
  • Taiwan
  • New Zealand
  • Indonesia
  • China
  • Vietnam

Although our experience is primarily in countries within Asia/Pacific, IEC can also undertake market studies for other countries outside the region.

We specialise in understanding deregulated Pool-type markets and hydro-dominated systems.

Users

Our detailed Power Market Studies are prepared for:

  • IPP developers who may be seeking to understand a new market or identify opportunities
  • Asset buyers who need to assess the competitive position (ie. risk) and future revenues/costs (ie. valuation) of acquisition targets
  • Asset owners considering expanding their existing business or wishing to understand the impact of deregulation, future competition and/or carbon taxes
  • Fuel suppliers (LNG, gas, thermal coal) who wish to understand the market potential for their product (eg. volume, timing, pricing, customers, etc).
  • Large consumers (eg. industrial users, distribution companies, retailers) who are seeking to optimise (minimise) their electricity costs
  • Traders who wish to identify medium- to long-term trends in the market
  • Investment banks who are advising their clients or need to assess the risk of lending to a project
  • Equity analysts who require a deeper understanding of specific markets and issues
  • Equipment suppliers and EPC companies who want to understand the markets trends for their products and services

Table Of Contents

Our Power Market Studies are customised for each Client but typically cover the following topics:

NOT DISPLAYED
1. Country Overview
  • Size, population
  • Economy
  • Risks & attractions
2. Market Overview
  • Generation
    • Capacity mix
    • Energy mix
    • Historical generation mix
    • Major plant location map
    • Ownership structure
  • Transmission & Distribution
    • T&D network
    • Ownership structure
    • Network costs
  • Retail
    • Ownership structure
    • Market share
    • Customer breakdown
    • Retail tariff structure
  • Regulatory
    • Regulatory framework
    • Industry structure
    • Deregulation & privatisation
    • IPP market
    • Pool market description
    • Pool price history
3. Demand
  • Historical load growth
  • Elasticity vs GDP
  • Load Factor
  • Customer mix
  • Load forecast
  • Seasonality
  • Daily/weekly load & dispatch curve
4. Generation
  • Plant list
  • Historical expansion plan
  • Reserve margin requirements
  • Future expansion plan
  • Marginal cost curve
  • Role of hydro
  • Role of solar, wind, etc
  • Role of storage
  • Ancillary services
  • New capacity requirements (size, type, timing, etc)
5. New Entrant Options
  • Type, specifications, size, cost, etc
  • Price vs. capacity factor
  • Competitive ranking
  • Barriers to entry
NOT DISPLAYED
6. Fuel Supply
  • Historical fuel consumption
  • Fuel costs
  • Fossil fuel (oil, gas & coal) reserves & production
  • Fuel demand forecast
  • Fuel supply options
7 Carbon Emissions
  • Historical emissions
  • Regulations, taxes, etc
  • Future emissions
  • Impact of carbon tax
8. Modelling
  • Analysis
  • Assumptions
  • Base Case & Scenario Analysis (20+ year projections for each scenario eg. load growth, fuel prices, expansion plan, hydrology, carbon taxes, etc)
  • System reserve margin
  • System marginal price
  • Base load Pool price
  • Plant capacity factor
  • Plant revenues & costs
  • Fuel consumption
  • Comparison of PPA vs. merchant revenues
9. Project/Company Valuation
  • Project/Company Overview (history, financials, technical summary)
  • Generation profile (position in merit order, seasonal/annual output)
  • Regulatory status (PPAs, Pool exposure, hedging, etc)
  • Other business (fuel supply, T&D, retail, non-power)
  • Fuel supply (current & future)
  • Revenue/EBITDA projections (Scenario Analysis)
  • Risk analysis
  • Future growth prospects
10. Summary & Recommendations
  • Key results
  • Key conclusions
  • Opportunities
  • Recommendations

Timing

Depending on the Client’s required level of detail, a typical market study may take between 4-8 weeks to complete, excluding any travelling time. The preparation of a market study includes the following steps:

  • Meet with Client to discuss goal, scope, deliverables, schedule, budget, etc
  • Data acquisition. Update existing database or collect data for new market
  • Model construction. Customise simulation model to meet Client’s specific needs
  • Model calibration. Calibrate simulation model to fit with historical data
  • Scenario analysis. Run model for multiple scenarios
  • Collate and interpret results to identify trends, opportunities and risks
  • Presentation & Discussion. Interactive session with Client
  • Ongoing Support. Establish facility to enable to Client request additional analysis

Cost

The cost of each market study depends on the level of analysis required, although the initial scoping phase (generally a visit to the Client’s office and 1-2 days discussion) is waived from any fee.

IEC always recommends and encourages the Client to participate in the analytical process, wherever possible, to provide feedback and ensure that the deliverables are in line with expectations.

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The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming concluded that the planet’s atmosphere can absorb no more than 420 gigatonnes (Gt) of additional CO2, if we are to stay below the 1.5°C threshold. Around 42Gt of CO2 is currently emitted globally each year (equal to 1332 tonnes per second) by human activity, which means that the 1.5°C budget is expected to be exhausted by 2028. Once we hit that threshold, there is no going back.

Use the Carbon Clock to check how much time is left.