Modelling Services

IEC has an in-house suite of proprietary software and modelling tools that have been developed by personnel with hands-on experience in the power industry, specifically to meet the particular requirements of IPP companies and other participants in a wholesale electricity market.

Our modelling capabilities include:

  • Long-term supply and demand calculations
  • Hourly load & dispatch simulation
  • Pool market projections (prices, generation, fuel, etc)
  • New Entrant analysis
  • Retail tariff comparisons & pricing solutions

Load and Dispatch Simulation

IEC’s flagship product is our power market & Pool simulation model which is designed to replicate the long- and short-term operation of power generation systems in both regulated and deregulated Pool markets.

The simulation model dispatches all existing and future plants into the load on an hourly basis (8760 times per year). Hydro plants are dispatched optimally according to their weekly energy budgets and constraints. Thermal plants are then dispatched into the net thermal load, according to their position in the merit order (after adjustment for maintenance, transmission loss factors, must-run & minimum generation constraints). Where necessary, adjustments are made for anomalous Pool market behaviour and/or take-or-pay constraints.

The model is designed to make long-term (20+ years) projections of systems, companies and individual projects and can test multiple scenarios of load growth, expansion plans, hydrology, fuel price, Pool market behaviour, fuel price, etc.

Typical outputs include:

  • Load growth
  • Reserve margin
  • Plant capacity factors (daily, monthly or annual)
  • Fuel demand (including daily & seasonal variations)
  • Marginal cost curves
  • New generation capacity requirements (timing, size & type)
  • Pool price projections
  • CO2 emissions
  • Plant/company EBITDA (operating revenues & costs)
  • Scenario analysis

New Entrant Analysis

IEC has developed an analytical screening tool designed to analyse New Entrant options in an IPP market. The model determines the optimum long-term economic choice for a new power plant at a specified capacity factor.

Users can input technical specifications, fuel costs and capex estimates for various plant types and compare the levelized tariff at a specified capacity factor.

This tool is particularly useful for investors participating in IPP solicitations where plant/fuel type is optional.  The model also allows fuel suppliers to calculate the maximum netback fuel price available in a deregulated Pool market.

Retail Tariff Comparisons & Pricing Solutions

IEC has an extensive and detailed database of published and unpublished retail electricity tariffs from over 50 countries. This database is updated regularly and allows clients to compare their rates with those in other markets in a fair and transparent manner.

Tariffs are reported on the same date and for a range of standardized sizes for Residential, Commercial and Industrial customers.

For more information on our Global Tariff Survey please click here

We also assist clients to develop dynamic pricing solutions in competitive retail electricity markets, based on our modelling of spot prices, wholesale/futures contracts, fuel prices, network charges and exchange rates.

In 2015, upon signing the Paris Climate Agreement, all nations around the world set themselves the goal of limiting global warming to below 2.0°C (preferably 1.5°C) compared to pre-industrial levels. Climate scientists now almost universally agree that once the 1.5°C limit is reached, our planet’s climate will experience irreversible and catastrophic changes. Humans have not faced such an existential threat for 75,000 years (when we nearly became extinct).

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming concluded that the planet’s atmosphere can absorb no more than 420 gigatonnes (Gt) of additional CO2, if we are to stay below the 1.5°C threshold. Around 42Gt of CO2 is currently emitted globally each year (equal to 1332 tonnes per second) by human activity, which means that the 1.5°C budget is expected to be exhausted by 2028. Once we hit that threshold, there is no going back.

Use the Carbon Clock to check how much time is left.